Brexit Would Be An Overall Mistake, Says New Paper
The argument that Britain needs to leave the European Union to reclaim its sovereignty is misguided says new paper, Britain, the EU and the Sovereignty Myth.
The risks of leaving the European Union could be great. For example, the UK would be excluded from the process of EU rule-writing, making it a less attractive location for foreign investment and would make it harder to secure trade deals.
Leaving would also have a destabilizing effect on the rest of the EU, which will remain Britain’s largest market.
In addition, he paper asserts the British economy has prospered in the EU. The UK boasts higher economic growth and lower unemployment than most major developed economies and is the recipient of the most foreign direct investment in the EU. Britain is seen as an attractive investment opportunity that is ranked among the most open places to do business in the developed world. British economic weaknesses, such as low growth in productivity, are self-inflicted.
On the flip side, the primary danger in remaining in the EU are political. High levels of immigration from the EU would persist. However, it is inconceivable that the EU will enlarge to include Turkey in the foreseeable future, and the UK and other EU states retain a veto over this decision.
Populism Defining Election – Or Not
When Donald Trump announced his intention to run for president, he delivered an epic attack on the nation’s immigration and trade policy that resonated with a swath of voters that spanned both parties and who felt they had been outsourced by their own government. In short, he launched a campaign against globalization, says Edward Goldberg a professor in international political economy at New York University.
“Compounding the illusion that global growth is a zero-sum game is the reality that some people have lost their jobs to globalization. But the operative word here is some. In the political game of perception, Donald Trump has managed, with his attacks on China, Japan, and Mexico, to make globalization the simplistic scapegoat for most of the job losses in American manufacturing,” he writes.
While Goldberg contends both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have effectively and successfully tapped into a strain of American populism, Stephen Sestanovich of Foreign Affairs disagrees.
In fact, he says that a deep dive into polling numbers shows many Americans do not want support (at least to the extent they do) the position of these men that the U.S. should withdraw from its leadership role or that global alliances are now obsolete.
“In the last half century, there have been only three stretches when Pew found a sharp and sustained decline in public support for the idea that ‘the U.S. should mind its own business internationally.’ And each of these periods was followed by a more activist foreign policy,” Sestanovich maintains.
Donald Trump, The Unilateralist
Contrary to the mainstream perception that Trump’s hard rhetoric against US involvement overseas and his suggestion that allies should bear a greater leadership burden, Alex Ward of War on the Rocks argues that the real-estate mogul is more of a unilateralist than a non-interventionist.
Ward suggests that discussions of Trump’s “America First” doctrine miss the central point of his past comments – that he is an avid unilateralist who “wants to wield American power actually lends itself to hawkish decision-making.”
From his previous support for intervening in Iraq and toppling dictators through military force to his advocacy of massive bombing of ISIS locations and executing terrorists (and their families), Ward says Trump is not the dove portrayed by some analysts.
“In essence, Trump’s unilateral approach, with his mix of isolationism and belligerent nationalism, will not give his supporters what they crave. After all, throughout U.S. history presidents with unilateralist instincts have gotten the United States involved in military adventures abroad because of the lack of constraints on an unchained America. Trump’s desire to reap natural resources for America’s benefit, added to his desire to drop ordnance on terrorists, might encourage him to escalate wars in the Middle East or start new skirmishes elsewhere,” asserts Ward.