Monday Brexit Update

Brexit Vote Likely To Hurt Poorer Communities Hardest
Thomas de Waal, a fellow of Carnegie Europe who supported remaining in the European Union, says there is a dark irony to the Brexit vote. Much of the support for leaving the EU came from individuals living in poorer communities who felt disenfranchised and disconnected from the “elites.” However, it is just those people, he argues, who will be negatively impacted by their own decision.

“The black irony of this is that it is precisely the social category of working-class protest voters who are likely to suffer when Britain loses the privileged access it currently has to the EU’s single market. For example, the first big news of referendum night was the announcement that the northeastern Sunderland had voted by a margin of 61 to 39 percent. And yet one of the biggest employers in that region is the Nissan car factory, which is located there because of its access to EU markets,” he writes.

Security Implications Of Brexit Vote
John Schindler asserts in his column in The Observer the economic and political consequences of the Leave vote remain somewhat unclear at the moment. However, he says, there should be little change in terms of national security and military affairs.

Pointing to Germany’s decision to open its doors to migrants from the Middle East as representative of EU foreign policy, he says Britain is unlikely to see any significant change.

“The reality is that Britain’s close ties with foreign security services will be unaffected by Brexit in any serious or long-term way. In intelligence terms, the EU hardly matters at all. It has lots of liaison jobs, no end of meetings on intelligence sharing, plus endless retreats for spy agency higher-ups—but the hard work, day in and day out, of intelligence cooperation is still largely a bilateral matter. No matter what happens with Brexit, London’s secret ties with key partners in Paris, Berlin and beyond will continue, no matter what pundits and politicos say.

“Above all the Special Relationship in intelligence among Britain, America and our Anglosphere partners will go forward, as it has for more than three-quarters of a century,” he contends.

Brexit Adds To Ongoing Geopolitical Shifts
The end of the Second World War marked a move toward greater cooperation within Europe, a continent that saw the two greatest military conflicts of the twentieth century. For Europe, unity was vital to foster peace and to rebuild from the economic damage done by the war. That unity began to expand beyond economic concerns during the 1990s when the EU began to exert more control over political and social matters in Britain. That led to a negative reaction among the populations of Europe, a feeling that crystalized after the collapse of the global economy.

For the most part, globalization’s retreat has been under way at least since 2008, when global finance nearly froze and the Doha Round negotiations for lower trade barriers collapsed. These crises, and the economic slump that followed, fueled disenchantment with the established political order.

So, where does Europe and Britain go from here? That is very complicated, says Theodore Dalrymple.

It could lead to a another Scottish referendum, a reunification of Ireland, or a further breakup of the EU on the continent itself.

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