Refugee, Migrant Crisis Will Abate Only When Syrian Civil War Ends
Migrant, Refugee Crisis Unlikely To Ease Until Syrian Civil War Ends
Over the last three years, hundreds of thousands of Syrians have fled their country as the regime of Bashir al-Assad and the terrorist group ISIS have become brazenly brutal. But the flows of refugees and migrants has increase dramatically in recent years.
From July 2014 to July 2015, there were almost 210,000 asylum applications in the EU by Syrian nationals. According to the UNHCR, the number of asylum applications for the month of June alone was over 28,000, and over 32,000 in July. The numbers for August are likely to be even higher. The refugees have paralyzed the asylum system in Greece, Hungary, and elsewhere, with Hungary now constructing a wall along the Serbian border.
Until a resolution of the Syrian civil war is achieved, most analyst and experts agree the refugee crisis will continue. So, how could the war come to a conclusion? Brookings Institution’s Michael O’Hanlon suggests examining how other civil wars have ended and drawing lessons from those experiences.
He says there are four possibilities to how this could be achieved, including through simple military victory by one of the two sides within Syria and through intervention by outside forces.
One of the final two options is a negotiated peace, a strategy which is being attempted at the present time. However, O’Hanlon says, that has worked in the past only when the two sides have reached a point of exhaustion after a decade or so of fighting. The Syrian war is just over three years long.
“Of these four, [partition or confederation] seems realistic for Syria. Even this plan would be hard, given how many of the country’s central cities are ethnically intermixed. But it has a chance, whereas other strategies offer little hope.
“The core reason is this: Any Syria deal is going to have to be enforced. And at present, for the first three options listed above, there is no viable candidate for enforcing it. The parties to the conflict are too extremist, too mistrustful of each other and too far from any clean military outcome. No foreign power has the will and means to impose a solution countrywide,” he writes.
While many Western nations believe Assad must step down, Iran insists that he must play a central role in any negotiations and this week submitted a peace plan to Assad for his review, according to Yahoo! New
Any successful plan to find a solution to the Syrian crisis must take into consideration the central role of the Syrian people in deciding their future and fate, and the role of the government and of Assad are essential and pivotal in the potential solution,” said Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian at a press conference this week.