If Assad falls, who follows

Bashar al-Assad is urging his loyalists to “show more readiness” as the two-week battle for Aleppo enters another critical phase and foreign policy analysts begin to prepare for a post-Assad Syria.

Rejan Menon says that the international community will continue to face opposition to regime is that China and Russia’s stances are rooted in self-interest. One of the reasons for his view is that both harbor fears that an Islamic regime may replace the current one and have a destabilizing effect on the Muslim populations in their own regions.

Tony Karon picks up this point in Time magazine positing that Assad may be replaced by a “junta in a box,” while Foreign Policy profiles Gen. Manaf Tlaf, the general who defected and who is one being discussed to follow if Assad is removed from power.

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