Economic predictions often are anything but predictable

It is said that those who do not heed the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them. One of the biggest lessons is that making economic predictions is – at best – an imperfect science. The Economist took a look back into its archives to see what its own analysts were writing in 1931.

Their¬†editorial in the first edition of 1931 was referred to the coming “Happy New Decade,” as well as another article arguing that national socialism in Germany had subsided.

The many examples of “getting it wrong,” notes the authors, is not “meant as a broader comment on current events, except as to point out that in the thick of a crisis one will struggle to see the full dimensions of the situation.”


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